Improving Lake Superior outflow regulation and quantifying uncertainty
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers seeks proposals to analyze and quantify uncertainty in new Lake Superior outflow rating equations, supporting improved water management through collaboration with ongoing modeling efforts.
Funder: Engineer Research and Development Center
Due Dates: June 4, 2026: Phase I Statement of Interest (SOI) | July 6, 2026: Full application (Phase II, if invited)
Funding Amounts: Up to $200,000 per award; estimated total program funding $400,000; 12-month base task, possible optional tasks if funding available.
Summary: Supports uncertainty analysis and modeling to improve Lake Superior outflow regulation and water management.
Key Information: Only non-federal partners of the Great Lakes Northern Forest CESU are eligible.
Description
This opportunity from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ERDC) seeks proposals to conduct a comprehensive uncertainty analysis for new outflow rating equations at a critical Lake Superior water control structure. The primary aim is to enhance the accuracy and reliability of discharge measurements, supporting more effective water management under the Lake Superior Regulation Plan. The project involves close collaboration with the University of Michigan modeling team, leveraging advanced physical and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. The main deliverable is a quantified uncertainty band for discharge rates under various gate settings and water levels, using the Large Lake Statistical Water Balance Model to ensure consistency with existing Great Lakes water balance models.
Optional tasks—contingent on funding—include developing a high-fidelity hydrodynamic model of the St. Marys River using the Delft3D FM suite, with the objective of integrating new rating equations and uncertainty analysis into operational models. The work is expected to deliver actionable uncertainty metrics that can immediately support USACE operational decision-making and ecological management.
