Predictability of Organized Convection and Applications to Warn-on-Forecast Ensemble Design
This project studies how predictable thunderstorms are to improve NOAA's weather forecasting and warning systems for severe weather events.
This grant is no longer accepting proposals
NRC Research Associateship Programs has archived this opportunity.
Funder: NRC Research Associateship Programs
Due Dates: May 1, 2025 (Application Deadline)
Funding Amounts: Base stipend approximately $60,000 with $3,000 travel allowance; additional supplements possible based on experience and degree (e.g., $24,000 for Electrical Engineering doctorates)
Summary: Supports postdoctoral and senior researchers to study the predictability of organized convection to improve NOAA's Warn-on-Forecast ensemble weather prediction systems for severe thunderstorms and related hazards.
Key Information: Open to U.S. citizens, permanent residents, and non-U.S. citizens; requires contacting a NOAA research adviser prior to application; research conducted at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, OK.
Description
This fellowship opportunity is part of the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast program, which aims to develop convection-allowing ensemble numerical weather prediction systems. The goal is to enable longer lead times for warnings of tornadoes, flash floods, damaging winds, hail, and other thunderstorm hazards. The research focuses on understanding the intrinsic and practical predictability limits of convective storms to optimize ensemble design and resource allocation.
Key research areas include:
- Investigating how model grid spacing and initial condition resolution affect forecast skill.
- Exploring the predictability limits of storm evolution to improve forecast update frequency and ensemble size.
- Conducting idealized experiments, real case studies, and hybrid approaches to assess forecast errors and sensitivities.
- Calibrating and interpreting ensemble forecast outputs for operational use.
The research is conducted at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma, under the mentorship of experts such as Corey Keith Potvin.
